Months of confidence that global demand growth in 2018 will amply absorb any increases in non-OPEC supply appear to have finally eroded, with OPEC’s analysis arm on Wednesday issuing its first mildly bearish outlook for the year, Platts reports.

In its closely watched monthly oil market report, OPEC projected a year-on-year rise of 1.66 million b/d in non-OPEC supplies in 2018, while demand is seen increasing by 1.60 million b/d. The report comes as OPEC and 10 non-OPEC partners led by Russia are coordinating on supply cuts of 1.8 million b/d from October 2016 levels to rebalance the market and bring OECD inventories down to the five-year average. A monitoring committee chaired by Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih overseeing the deal will meet in Saudi Arabia in April to review compliance with the cuts and assess market conditions.

OPEC’s February output, which was an 80,000 b/d decline from December, was at 32.19 million b/d in February, some 540,000 b/d below their nominal ceiling of 32.73 million b/d, when each country’s quota under the agreement is added up. Nigeria saw the largest rise in the month, boosting production just over 20,000 b/d to 1.81 million b/d, while Libya increased output by 10,000 b/d to 1 million b/d. The two countries have a combined 2.8 million b/d cap under the deal, after having spent 2017 exempted from the cuts as they recovered from civil unrest.

Â